Bulgarian Snap Elections: A Call to Action
Bulgarian citizens find themselves at a crucial crossroads as they prepare for snap national elections this Sunday. This marks the seventh time the electorate has been summoned to the polls since mass anti-corruption protests in 2020 led to the ousting of a coalition government headed by the centre-right GERB party. The political landscape has been tumultuous, characterized by a series of elections—two of which were held merely three months apart—resulting in unstable coalitions formed by various centrist and right-leaning parties.
Many observers have described these years as a phase of “revolving-door governments,” fostering significant voter apathy. In the most recent national election held in June, the GERB-SDS coalition emerged as the largest faction, securing 68 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly. They were followed by the centrist DPS, which has traditionally represented Bulgaria’s substantial Turkish minority, winning 47 seats. The far-right, pro-Russia party, Vazrazhdane (Revival), claimed 38 seats. Notably, voter turnout was alarmingly low, recorded at just 34%, a stark contrast to the 75% participation witnessed in the 1990s, shortly after the fall of the Soviet-backed regime in Bulgaria. The deadlock following months of coalition negotiations, primarily led by GERB, ultimately led to the calling of this October election.
A History of Distrust and Apathy
The eastern European nation, home to approximately 6.7 million people, has a long-standing issue with voter apathy, as noted by the polling firm Gallup, which has been tracking electoral distrust across Europe for nearly two decades. Bulgaria consistently ranks at the bottom of this list. Voter confidence, which peaked at 36% in 2006, has plummeted to an all-time low of 10%. This figure is notably one-third that of Romania, the next-lowest EU country, and six times lower than the current EU average.
This pervasive distrust extends beyond elections. The Bulgarian electorate exhibits skepticism towards many public institutions. For instance, confidence in the judiciary stands at a mere 17%, which is less than half of what Malta reports. Additionally, approval ratings for the EU have reached a historic low of 46%. Some analysts contend that this widespread disillusionment has created a fertile ground for the rise of far-right movements in the country. The Revival party, which entered parliament in Sofia just three years ago, successfully surpassed the 4% threshold necessary to secure seats. In the upcoming elections, it is polling in third place, garnering approximately 14.2% of the anticipated vote, with the potential to even secure a second-place finish.
Nationalists on the Rise in Bulgaria
Since making its parliamentary debut, the Revival party has been at the forefront of advocating for a controversial “foreign agent” law, reminiscent of a bill that incited mass protests in Georgia earlier this year. Furthermore, they successfully enacted anti-LGBTQ+ legislation that prohibits “propaganda” promoting “non-traditional sexual orientations.”
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The Revival party’s growing influence comes amid a broader trend of ultra-conservative parties gaining traction across Europe, with significant advances noted in national elections in France and Austria, as well as within the European Parliament this year. Analysts of Bulgarian politics suggest that the Revival party’s capacity to shape coalition politics could be unprecedented following the results of Sunday’s vote, particularly as the DPS party appears to be fracturing into factions.