Biden’s Upcoming Meeting in Berlin
US President Joe Biden is set to meet with key European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in Berlin this week as his presidency approaches its conclusion. This critical visit, originally planned for last week, was expected to include a gathering at Germany’s Ramstein air base, where Biden was to engage with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other prominent European figures. However, after Biden’s visit was postponed, Zelenskyy took the opportunity to tour London, Rome, Berlin, and Paris to present his ambitious “victory plan” to European leaders.
As Biden prepares to potentially hand over the presidency to either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, European governments are strategizing for both possible outcomes. In either scenario, it is evident that Europe will need to reduce its historical dependence on the United States for security and defense.
Euronews recently spoke to transatlantic expert and senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Rachel Tausendfreund, about the evolving dynamics of US-EU relations, particularly concerning discussions related to Ukraine’s prospective NATO membership.
The Need for European Defense Coordination
Tausendfreund emphasized that Europe must enhance its procurement of weapons and ammunition and coordinate better among member states. She noted, “Individually, countries are purchasing a significant amount of military equipment or producing a reasonable quantity of material, but because NATO member states are acting independently, their collective capacity is far below what it could be.”
France advocates for a European initiative to produce fighter jets and munitions, while countries like Germany argue for purchasing weapons based on cost-effectiveness and efficiency, even if it involves sourcing from places like Israel. This difference in approach has sparked tensions among member states.
Potential Implications for NATO under a Trump Presidency
Tausendfreund outlined two potential scenarios for NATO if Trump were to win the upcoming election. The more optimistic view, particularly favored by France, is that European nations would finally recognize the need for strategic autonomy and reduce their reliance on the US. This shift could lead to diminished dependence on American military systems, which often require political backing for their use.
However, she cautioned that this optimistic scenario may be unrealistic, as countries situated on NATO’s eastern flank, feeling threatened by Russia, may continue to rely heavily on their partnership with the US for their defense needs, leading to persistent fragmentation within NATO.
Regarding Ukraine’s situation, Tausendfreund anticipates that a Trump victory would likely result in diminished support for Ukraine. She believes Trump would push for negotiations almost immediately, using military assistance as leverage to pressure Kyiv into discussions. “By early January, they’ll be forced to negotiate, regardless of circumstances,” she stated, asserting that Trump would seek to negotiate a deal that he could present as a diplomatic success.
The best-case scenario for NATO under a Trump administration would involve a robust response from the EU and coordination with the UK, potentially leading to a Europeanized NATO where European nations contribute a larger share—around 60%—of defense and deterrence capabilities. However, if NATO states and the EU fail to bolster their defense capabilities, they risk becoming significantly weakened by 2025.
Consequences for NATO if Kamala Harris Wins
If Vice President Kamala Harris were to take office, Tausendfreund predicts a period of solid support for Ukraine, albeit with an eye towards establishing an exit strategy within one to two years. A Harris presidency could motivate the EU to strengthen its internal coordination and enhance its defense capabilities.
However, she warns that if Europe continues to make decisions in a fragmented manner, the repercussions could be detrimental, leading to weakened European security by 2027 or 2028. “The US simply doesn’t have the capacity to maintain its focus on Europe as it has in the past,” she noted.
Regarding support for Ukraine, Tausendfreund stated, “If Harris wins, you can expect the same level of rhetorical support as we’ve seen in the Biden administration.” She also suggested that another significant aid package for Ukraine would be feasible, even if the Republicans control the Senate, given that a considerable number of Republicans support aiding Ukraine, provided the political pressure remains manageable.
The Future of NATO and Zelenskyy’s ‘Victory Plan’
Regardless of who emerges victorious in the upcoming election, the pressure on NATO to bolster its military capabilities is unlikely to lessen. Tausendfreund asserts that without improved cooperation among member states, Russia may feel emboldened to “create disturbances on the continent.”
She elaborated, “Ukraine will require strong security guarantees from NATO’s partners, whether in the form of full membership or bilateral security assurances. For these guarantees to be credible, European nations must do substantial groundwork.”
Tausendfreund described Zelenskyy’s proposal as ambitious, but she remains skeptical about its feasibility, particularly under a Biden administration. “I doubt he will receive the support he seeks from Biden. However, under a Harris administration, we might see more favorable responses,” she concluded.
Security experts are calling for a more unified European approach to defense production and urging immediate action to make critical decisions about NATO’s future.