Anticipating a Lengthy Election Night in 2024
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, voters should brace themselves for what could be an extended election night—or even several nights. The outcome of this pivotal race is likely to hinge on seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While initial results may come in quickly from Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, the counting process in the other four states could be significantly prolonged, particularly if the margins are razor-thin.
In fact, a combination of newly enacted state laws and the failure of some legislators to streamline vote counting processes may lead to an even longer wait for a declared winner than was experienced in 2020. In that election, major news organizations called the race four days after Election Day. As we look ahead, a delayed announcement could put the nation’s patience and resilience to the test.
The aftermath of the 2020 election saw the proliferation of misinformation and conspiracy theories as the tallying of votes dragged on in critical battleground states. Therefore, it is essential for voters to understand what to expect this upcoming Election Day, including the nature of the anticipated delays and the ways in which some of these issues could have been mitigated.
Since the last presidential election, states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have either implemented new regulations that could hinder prompt vote counting or opted to maintain existing rules that contributed to the protracted tallying times in 2020. In contrast, only Michigan and North Carolina have made meaningful legislative changes aimed at expediting the counting process. Fortunately, Georgia has a history of efficient vote counting. Although certain Trump-aligned members of the state election board attempted to introduce rules that would slow down the counting process, Georgia’s courts effectively rejected these efforts.
The resulting landscape is a mixed bag of new developments and lingering old laws—some of which are promising, while many others raise concerns. This creates a potential recipe for delays and confusion if the election results are closely contested.
It’s important to note that results are never officially confirmed on election night; media outlets and political campaigns release preliminary vote totals and may declare winners when they believe enough ballots have been counted and the margins are decisive. The formal certification of results typically occurs days or even weeks later.
Another crucial aspect to keep in mind this November is the likelihood of a repeat of the “red mirage” or “blue shift” phenomena observed in 2020. Historically, Democrats have relied more heavily on mail ballots, which often leads to Republicans appearing to perform better on Election Day itself. Conversely, as mail ballots are counted in the days following the election, Democrats may show a surge in votes. What remains uncertain is whether the Republican Party’s efforts this year to encourage early voting among their supporters will alter this established trend.
