Analyzing Polling Stability in the 2024 Presidential Election

Understanding Polling Trends in the 2024 Presidential Election

In the midst of what has been an intense and unpredictable election season, it’s essential for avid consumers of polling data to adopt a calm perspective. The mantra “Keep calm and throw it in the average” serves as a reminder to contextualize the fluctuations we witness in polling results for our preferred candidates. This particular presidential race is noteworthy for the remarkably stable nature of polling averages, which is a deviation from the historical norm.

To provide a clearer picture of the current election landscape, I examined the polling averages from RealClearPolitics, tracing their movements back to the 2008 election cycle. While I acknowledge the excellent polling average compiled by The New York Times, I opted for RealClearPolitics due to its comprehensive historical data spanning multiple presidential elections. As of now, both averages reflect a closely contested race, with Kamala Harris at 49 percent and Donald Trump at 48 percent.

Looking back at the 2008 election, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain enjoyed a nearly three-point lead in national polls. However, by Election Day, the tide turned dramatically in favor of Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average indicating a lead of approximately seven points—representing a significant 10-point shift over just a couple of months. Similar trends were observed in subsequent elections; in both 2012 and 2016, the average shifted by several points in the final two months. For instance, in 2012, a substantial lead for the Democratic candidate, Obama, dwindled to a near tie with his opponent, Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, in 2020, Joe Biden consistently maintained a lead in national polls, yet the average fluctuated between Biden +6 and Biden +10.

This year, however, the polling landscape has exhibited a much more restrained movement. Since Labor Day, the polls have registered a high watermark for Kamala Harris at +2.2, and a recent slim lead of just +0.9. This illustrates that the race, indeed, is barely budging.

But what could explain this unusual stability in polling results? As I mentioned two weeks ago, Donald Trump’s well-defined brand image tends to anchor the election, creating a narrow bandwidth for the race to oscillate within. Furthermore, there may be methodological factors at play that contribute to the observed stability. Several pollsters are employing fixed assumptions about the expected characteristics of the electorate, particularly concerning partisan makeup. This approach limits the potential for significant movement in polling numbers that might otherwise occur if the partisan composition of their samples were allowed to fluctuate freely.

It’s important to note that one phenomenon often cited to explain polling behavior—herding—does not appear to be a factor in this instance. Herding occurs when pollsters refrain from publishing results that may seem like outliers, potentially to avoid backlash if their predictions prove inaccurate. For example, an analysis highlighted that in the final week of the 2015 general election in Britain, “the decrease in the variance” regarding the Conservative Party’s lead was “consistent with herding.”

In conclusion, while the current election cycle may seem stagnant in terms of polling, a closer look reveals underlying dynamics that merit attention. The historical context serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of elections, even in times of apparent stability.

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