Analyzing Attendance Trends for the USMNT: Challenges and Opportunities

The Complex Landscape of USMNT Attendance

The Complex Landscape of USMNT Attendance

When U.S. Soccer made the decision to schedule friendlies for the U.S. men’s national team in Kansas City, Kansas, and Cincinnati, Ohio during the September international window, it seemed a reasonable choice. Kansas City is often regarded as a central hub for soccer in America, boasting Sporting Kansas City, one of Major League Soccer’s most consistently attended teams, and the NWSL’s Kansas City Current, which has garnered an enthusiastic following since the return of professional women’s soccer to the region. Similarly, Cincinnati has a rich soccer culture, with FC Cincinnati emerging as a competitive force in MLS and capturing the hearts of local fans.

However, the matches against Canada and New Zealand did not attract the expected crowds. Despite the anticipation, both games saw significant empty seats. The turnout in Kansas City barely exceeded 10,000, while the Cincinnati game attracted around 15,000 supporters—falling short of the average attendance for an MLS match in the city by approximately 7,500.

In the aftermath of these matches, fans took to social media to share their theories regarding the disappointing attendance. Some suggested that the lack of interest stemmed from Mauricio Pochettino’s recent appointment as the team’s new manager, leading many to feel disinclined to watch a B team under interim management. Others pointed fingers at the USMNT’s poor performance during the summer’s Copa America, alongside issues such as escalating ticket prices, congested scheduling, and competition from other sports like college and NFL football. A more critical sentiment emerged, with some fans arguing that the USMNT has failed to captivate audiences, often delivering lackluster performances.

Just a month later, a nearly sold-out crowd gathered in Austin, Texas, to witness the USMNT face Panama, temporarily quelling concerns about attendance. Fans flocked to Q2 Stadium to see Pochettino’s first game in charge, prompting discussions about the varying levels of interest in U.S. soccer.

Analyzing Attendance Trends for the USMNT: Challenges and Opportunities

Understanding the Attendance Trends

Understanding the Attendance Trends

However, the reality behind the USMNT’s fluctuating appeal is multifaceted and cannot be easily addressed through social media discussions. A thorough examination of home attendance data over the past 30 years reveals both clarity and complexity. The statistics illustrate a federation that has continued to raise ticket prices while opting for smaller venues, resulting in fewer fans who are paying significantly more to attend matches. Additionally, the data challenges common assumptions, such as the belief that attendance spikes during World Cup years or is predominantly influenced by the strength of the opponent.

Despite the hype around a “golden generation” of U.S. talent, with numerous players competing at prestigious clubs worldwide, the USMNT’s long-term popularity appears stagnant. In recent years, the team has often drawn fewer fans than in the past, all while ticket prices have escalated.

U.S. Soccer executives frequently discuss their commitment to growing the game and reaching broader audiences. Although attendance is on an upswing as the country gears up to co-host the World Cup in 2026, crowds akin to those seen in Kansas City and Cincinnati remain all too common.

Record Profits, But at What Cost?

Record Profits, But at What Cost?

From a financial perspective, 2023 has been a positive year for the USMNT, with the team averaging an impressive 39,459 fans per match, thanks in part to high-profile friendlies against Colombia and Brazil. While many fans attend to support the visiting teams, this has become a familiar reality in a country where diverse immigrant populations often rally behind their national teams.

David Wright, U.S. Soccer’s chief commercial officer, expresses optimism regarding attendance trends as the federation eyes upcoming events in 2024. “We have a brand new coach with an impressive background and a dynamic player pool,” he states, emphasizing the evolving sophistication of U.S. soccer fans.

Nonetheless, record profits do little to alleviate the concerns of fans who have faced rising ticket prices. U.S. Soccer has acknowledged this issue, citing an analysis of ticket pricing trends over the past two decades. For instance, the average cost of a ticket to a home qualifier has seen a staggering increase, from $19.81 in the 1998 cycle to $97.06 by the 2018 cycle. While revenue has soared, average attendance has declined.

A Revenue and Ticket Pricing Overview

A Revenue and Ticket Pricing Overview

WC Cycle Games Total Attendance Total Revenue Average Attendance Average Ticket
1998 4 124,526 $2,466,589 31,132 $19.81
2002 8 249,266 $6,990,974 31,158 $28.05
2006 9 170,186 $6,780,466 18,910 $39.84
2010 9 191,922 $9,227,538 21,325 $48.08
2014 8 169,135 $10,958,947 21,142 $64.79
2018 8 181,090 $17,576,139 22,636 $97.06

While many fans understand U.S. Soccer’s need for financial sustainability, a growing concern looms: will the rising ticket prices alienate potential supporters and ultimately harm the sport’s popularity in the U.S.? Dynamic pricing has become standard, further complicating access for fans.

Challenges in Finding Competitors

Challenges in Finding Competitors

Attendance trends in 2023 have shown improvement, largely due to the USMNT’s participation in the Copa America and matches against well-supported teams like Brazil and Colombia. Historical data indicates that the average Elo ranking of home opponents for the USMNT in 2024 stands at 31, higher than all but one year since 1994. However, the correlation between opponent quality and attendance is not as straightforward as one might think.

For instance, while the USMNT drew well in 2023, they have also seen significant attendance during years when their Elo ranking was considerably lower. This suggests that factors beyond the quality of the opponent play a role in attendance numbers.

Year Number of Games Total Attendance Average Attendance Average Elo of Opponent
1994 21 648,060 30,860 44
1995 6 127,188 21,198 33
1996 12 427,848 35,654 53
1997 12 363,564 30,297 40
1998 11 309,661 28,151 34
1999 5 163,125 32,625 26
2000 12 424,104 35,342 51
2001 9 268,650 29,850 34
2002 12 325,104 27,092 43
2003 12 255,000 21,250 48
2004 9 180,774 20,086 67
2005 15 360,645 24,043 50
2006 7 142,513 20,359 57
2007 12 387,372 32,281 53
2008 7 214,137 30,591 61
2009 12 393,624 32,802 49
2010 6 214,314 35,719 36
2011 14 564,032 40,288 34
2012 6 199,254 33,209 62
2013 14 473,228 33,802 59
2014 6 202,812 33,802 48
2015 14 542,696 38,764 59
2016 14 345,296 24,664 37
2017 14 411,852 29,418 64
2018 7 169,141 24,163 23
2019 16 372,592 23,287 64
2020 2 11,672 5,836 N/A
2021 15 376,920 25,128 57
2022 7 149,681 21,383 70
2023 16 473,248 29,578 58
2024 11 434,049 39,459 31

As the federation navigates these challenges, it must balance financial stability with accessibility for fans. The ongoing relationship between ticket pricing and attendance continues to raise concerns about the sport’s future appeal.

Strategic Venue Selection

Strategic Venue Selection

Since the 2018 World Cup, the USMNT has increasingly favored the Midwest, playing 28 matches in that region compared to a combined total on the coasts. This shift has been intentional, driven by factors such as venue availability and training facilities, but there are also broader implications for fan engagement.

Wright emphasizes that venue selection is a multi-faceted puzzle, taking into account factors like opponent availability, market conditions, and logistics. While cities like New York and Seattle boast passionate soccer fanbases, the costs and competition for venue time often lead to games being held elsewhere.

Moreover, U.S. Soccer must consider broadcast partnerships, as kickoff times and weather conditions can significantly affect viewership. The federation is also mindful of scheduling conflicts with MLS and NWSL teams, ensuring that their events complement rather than compete with local games.

Addressing Misconceptions

Addressing Misconceptions

Several misconceptions persist regarding attendance trends. Contrary to popular belief, average USMNT attendance does not significantly rise during World Cup years, even when interest peaks. Additionally, the assumption that hiring a high-profile coach like Pochettino will boost attendance remains unproven, as historical data shows no measurable effect on attendance following coaching changes.

As U.S. Soccer looks ahead to the 2026 World Cup, Wright remains optimistic. Despite occasional dips in attendance, the overall trajectory appears positive, bolstered by the growing interest in soccer across the nation. As the federation continues to refine its strategies for market selection, ticket pricing, and fan engagement, the hope is to foster a more inclusive and vibrant soccer culture in the U.S.

(Top photos: Getty Images; Design by Meech Robinson)

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